During the reporting period (2026-07-23–2026-07-29), the monitor recorded 144 events across the region and calculated a cumulative risk index of 145.3 (MEDIUM volatility). Military incidents remained prominent (45), while overall activity was concentrated in the top risk locations led by Iran and West Bank.

• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iraq.
• International reactions were referenced in reporting.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iran.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Yemen.

Risk distribution was highly concentrated, with the top two locations accounting for ~67% of the window risk. This pattern suggests the weekly security picture was driven by a small number of core theatres, while secondary locations contributed marginally to overall volatility.

Outlook: Short-term escalation risk remains MEDIUM based on this week’s aggregated risk and incident mix. Priority monitoring should focus on the leading hotspots and any indicators of spillover into adjacent theatres.
Confidence: MEDIUM (based on event volume and source mix within this window).

• Total events: 144
• By category: military 45, security 6, political 13, other 80
• By source: news 138, ISW 6

• Total window risk: 145.3
• Top locations (risk):
• Iran — 85.4
• West Bank — 12.3
• Iraq — 10.4
• Israel — 8.3
• Yemen — 7.1

• 3.0 · 2026-07-29 · military · news · Iraq — Oil rises as US-Iran tension escalates after Iraq strikes, missile attack – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-07-29 · military · news · Iran — EXCLUSIVE: Iran to get Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems in weeks, sources say – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-07-29 · military · news · Iraq — US, Saudis attack Iran-backed groups in Iraq, threatening to intensify conflict – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-07-29 · military · news · West Bank — ‘Israeli settlers laid siege to our home’: Inside a Palestinian village under weekly attack
• 3.0 · 2026-07-29 · military · news · Iran — Iran and US trade strikes, shattering brief lull in fighting
• 3.0 · 2026-07-29 · military · news · Iran — Iran attacks US bases in Middle East as Trump meets Netanyahu – Al Jazeera
• 3.0 · 2026-07-29 · military · news · Iran — Iran missiles target US forces in Jordan after a five-day pause in war – Al Jazeera
• 2.7 · 2026-07-28 · military · news · Iran — US says it intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles launched towards US forces in Middle East – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-28 · military · news · Yemen — Yemen’s Houthis say they fired missiles at Saudi oil tanker in Red Sea – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-28 · military · news · Iran — Kyiv warns Iran against escalation after Ukraine’s Caspian Sea attack – Al Jazeera