During the reporting period (2026-10-01–2026-10-07), the monitor recorded 134 events across the region and calculated a cumulative risk index of 122.5 (MEDIUM volatility). Military incidents remained prominent (30), while overall activity was concentrated in the top risk locations led by Yemen and Iran.

• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Yemen.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Gaza Strip.
• Energy-security sensitivity indicated around the Strait of Hormuz in reporting.
• International reactions were referenced in reporting.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iran.

Risk distribution was broadly distributed, with the top two locations accounting for ~41% of the window risk. This pattern suggests the weekly security picture was driven by a small number of core theatres, while secondary locations contributed marginally to overall volatility.

Outlook: Short-term escalation risk remains MEDIUM based on this week’s aggregated risk and incident mix. Priority monitoring should focus on the leading hotspots and any indicators of spillover into adjacent theatres.
Confidence: MEDIUM (based on event volume and source mix within this window).

• Total events: 134
• By category: military 30, security 10, political 13, other 81
• By source: news 134, ISW 0

• Total window risk: 122.5
• Top locations (risk):
• Yemen — 29.7
• Iran — 19.9
• Gaza Strip — 15.1
• Israel — 12.5
• Dubai — 10.1

• 3.0 · 2026-10-07 · military · news · Yemen — Houthis attack Aden airport as fighting intensifies in Yemen – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-10-07 · military · news · Gaza Strip — Israelis mark three years since Hamas attack that set off Gaza assault – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-10-07 · military · news · Oman — Oman evacuates injured crew from attacked tanker in Strait of Hormuz – Al Jazeera
• 3.0 · 2026-10-07 · military · news · Yemen — Two Houthi missiles target Yemen’s Aden International Airport – Al Jazeera
• 2.7 · 2026-10-06 · military · news · Gaza Strip — Israeli strikes kill two people in Gaza, medics say – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-10-06 · military · news · Yemen — Saudi Arabia says three wounded in attacks on airports near Yemen border – Al Jazeera
• 2.7 · 2026-10-06 · military · news · Saudi Arabia — Saudi Arabia says three people wounded in attacks on southern airports – Al Jazeera
• 2.7 · 2026-10-06 · military · news · Yemen — Yemen’s government is on the attack against the Houthis. What has changed? – Al Jazeera
• 2.7 · 2026-10-06 · military · news · Iran — Trump jokes about letting Iran bomb Los Angeles and San Diego – Al Jazeera
• 2.4 · 2026-10-05 · military · news · Middle East — Middle East oil exports top pre-war levels for part of September but tanker attacks increase – Reuters