During the reporting period (2026-08-06–2026-08-12), the monitor recorded 133 events across the region and calculated a cumulative risk index of 103.6 (LOW volatility). Military incidents remained prominent (23), while overall activity was concentrated in the top risk locations led by Iran and Yemen.

• International reactions were referenced in reporting.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Yemen.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iran.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Oman.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Israel.

Risk distribution was broadly distributed, with the top two locations accounting for ~56% of the window risk. This pattern suggests the weekly security picture was driven by a small number of core theatres, while secondary locations contributed marginally to overall volatility.

Outlook: Short-term escalation risk remains LOW based on this week’s aggregated risk and incident mix. Priority monitoring should focus on the leading hotspots and any indicators of spillover into adjacent theatres.
Confidence: MEDIUM (based on event volume and source mix within this window).

• Total events: 133
• By category: military 23, security 5, political 22, other 83
• By source: news 133, ISW 0

• Total window risk: 103.6
• Top locations (risk):
• Iran — 36.4
• Yemen — 22.1
• Israel — 7.8
• Gaza Strip — 7.7
• Oman — 6.3

• 3.0 · 2026-08-12 · military · news · West Bank — Israeli raids, demolitions continue as UN warns West Bank at breaking point – Al Jazeera
• 3.0 · 2026-08-12 · military · news · Yemen — Six killed in Houthi attack on Bab al-Mandeb ship, Yemen’s government says – Al Jazeera
• 2.7 · 2026-08-11 · military · news · Iran — New attacks on shipping as Iran war talks hit fresh impasse – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-08-11 · military · news · Yemen — Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi ship in Bab el-Mandeb, Houthi-run news agency says – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-08-11 · military · news · Oman — Romania destroys drones drifting near major offshore gas project in the Black Sea – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-08-11 · military · news · Oman — Four crew, two rescuers killed in Red Sea attack; US strikes ship in Gulf of Oman – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-08-11 · military · news · Iran — Houthis reportedly kill six in first deadly attack since start of Iran war
• 2.7 · 2026-08-11 · military · news · Yemen — Yemen’s Houthis launch ballistic missile attacks on al-Makha and Marib – Al Jazeera
• 2.4 · 2026-08-10 · military · news · Israel — Israeli military closes Palestinian Christian village Taybeh, citing settler attacks – Reuters
• 2.4 · 2026-08-10 · military · news · Iran — Trump says Iran must pay compensation for those it has killed and wounded – Reuters