During the reporting period (2026-08-27–2026-09-02), the monitor recorded 143 events across the region and calculated a cumulative risk index of 155.9 (MEDIUM volatility). Military incidents remained prominent (48), while overall activity was concentrated in the top risk locations led by Iran and Gaza Strip.

• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iran.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Egypt.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iraq.
• International reactions were referenced in reporting.

Risk distribution was highly concentrated, with the top two locations accounting for ~65% of the window risk. This pattern suggests the weekly security picture was driven by a small number of core theatres, while secondary locations contributed marginally to overall volatility.

Outlook: Short-term escalation risk remains MEDIUM based on this week’s aggregated risk and incident mix. Priority monitoring should focus on the leading hotspots and any indicators of spillover into adjacent theatres.
Confidence: MEDIUM (based on event volume and source mix within this window).

• Total events: 143
• By category: military 48, security 3, political 7, other 85
• By source: news 139, ISW 4

• Total window risk: 155.9
• Top locations (risk):
• Iran — 84.3
• Gaza Strip — 17.4
• Israel — 14.0
• West Bank — 8.3
• Tehran — 6.3

• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Iran — US and Iran exchange attacks as lull in war appears over – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Iran — Oil prices extend gains as US and Iran trade fresh strikes – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Iran — US military says it completed latest wave of strikes on Iran – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Iran — Indian shares decline as oil prices surge on US-Iran strikes – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Egypt — Sixteen killed in bus accident in Egypt’s South Sinai, ministry says – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Iran — Iran attacks US bases in Middle East after reports US strike killed five at wedding party
• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Iraq — Iran claims attacks on Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq after US strikes kill 11 – Al Jazeera
• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Iran — Iran says US bombed a wedding party in Sirik, killing five people – Al Jazeera
• 3.0 · 2026-09-02 · military · news · Iran — Moment US strikes on Iranian port city hit wedding party – Al Jazeera
• 2.7 · 2026-09-01 · military · news · Tehran — US launches new strikes on Iran and Tehran hits back in widening conflict – Reuters