During the reporting period (2026-08-13–2026-08-19), the monitor recorded 113 events across the region and calculated a cumulative risk index of 97.7 (LOW volatility). Military incidents remained prominent (24), while overall activity was concentrated in the top risk locations led by Iran and Israel.

• International reactions were referenced in reporting.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iran.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Israel.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Oman.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iraq.

Risk distribution was broadly distributed, with the top two locations accounting for ~55% of the window risk. This pattern suggests the weekly security picture was driven by a small number of core theatres, while secondary locations contributed marginally to overall volatility.

Outlook: Short-term escalation risk remains LOW based on this week’s aggregated risk and incident mix. Priority monitoring should focus on the leading hotspots and any indicators of spillover into adjacent theatres.
Confidence: MEDIUM (based on event volume and source mix within this window).

• Total events: 113
• By category: military 24, security 4, political 19, other 66
• By source: news 109, ISW 4

• Total window risk: 97.7
• Top locations (risk):
• Iran — 30.2
• Israel — 23.7
• Gaza Strip — 10.7
• Yemen — 9.3
• Iraq — 5.6

• 3.0 · 2026-08-19 · military · news · Israel — US condemns ‘unnecessary escalation’ after Israeli airstrikes on Syrian airbase
• 3.0 · 2026-08-19 · military · news · Iran — UAE imposes indefinite trade embargo on Iran over alleged missile attacks – aljazeera.com
• 2.7 · 2026-08-18 · military · news · Iran — UAE says two missiles detected earlier were launched from Iran – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-08-18 · military · news · Israel — Israeli airstrikes hit Syrian airbase, drawing Turkish condemnation – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-08-18 · military · news · Oman — Why has Trump threatened to bomb Oman – for a second time? – aljazeera.com
• 2.7 · 2026-08-18 · military · news · Israel — Analysis: Syrian airbase attack is an Israeli message to Damascus, Ankara – aljazeera.com
• 2.7 · 2026-08-18 · military · news · Iraq — Iraqi Kurdish PM Barzani’s office targeted in drone attack – aljazeera.com
• 2.4 · 2026-08-17 · military · news · Iraq — Drone targets office of Iraqi Kurdistan’s PM, no casualties reported – Reuters
• 2.4 · 2026-08-17 · military · news · Iran — Trump says Iran won’t make deal he thinks is needed, threatens to bomb Oman – Reuters
• 2.4 · 2026-08-17 · military · news · Yemen — Houthis say they attacked Saudi vessels off Yemen’s Mocha – Reuters