During the reporting period (2026-07-16–2026-07-22), the monitor recorded 148 events across the region and calculated a cumulative risk index of 161.6 (MEDIUM volatility). Military incidents remained prominent (55), while overall activity was concentrated in the top risk locations led by Iran and Gaza Strip.

• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iran.
• Energy-security sensitivity indicated around the Strait of Hormuz in reporting.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Gaza Strip.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Iraq.
• High-weight reporting referenced developments tied to Oman.

Risk distribution was highly concentrated, with the top two locations accounting for ~74% of the window risk. This pattern suggests the weekly security picture was driven by a small number of core theatres, while secondary locations contributed marginally to overall volatility.

Outlook: Short-term escalation risk remains MEDIUM based on this week’s aggregated risk and incident mix. Priority monitoring should focus on the leading hotspots and any indicators of spillover into adjacent theatres.
Confidence: MEDIUM (based on event volume and source mix within this window).

• Total events: 148
• By category: military 55, security 1, political 17, other 75
• By source: news 142, ISW 6

• Total window risk: 161.6
• Top locations (risk):
• Iran — 106.0
• Gaza Strip — 14.0
• Israel — 13.4
• Iraq — 7.2
• Oman — 5.6

• 3.0 · 2026-07-22 · military · news · Iran — US military says its latest strikes on Iran have ended, marking 11th successive night of attacks – Reuters
• 3.0 · 2026-07-22 · military · news · Iran — US attacks Iran for 11th consecutive night – Al Jazeera
• 2.7 · 2026-07-21 · military · news · Iran — Dollar advances as oil prices rise after latest US-Iran strikes, Houthi blockade – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-21 · military · news · Iran — US military completes its latest strikes on Iran, marking the 10th successive night of attacks – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-21 · military · news · Iran — Hormuz vessel crossings extend slide on fresh US-Iran attacks – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-21 · military · news · Gaza Strip — Israeli airstrike kills family of six in Gaza, medics say – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-21 · military · news · Iran — Oil prices rise to five-week high on US-Iran attacks, Houthi blockade threat – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-21 · military · news · Iraq — Indian Oil Corp cancels Iraq oil lifting amid attacks, sources say – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-21 · military · news · Oman — Woman seriously injured in knife attack during church service in Irish town – Reuters
• 2.7 · 2026-07-21 · military · news · Gaza Strip — Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 12, including family of six, medics say